Eddy Zou

How much can middle managers matter when budgets, staffing, and priorities are set centrally? We study this question in the London Metropolitan Police Service, focusing on Borough Commanders, the middle managers who lead territorial divisions. We construct a panel of commanders' careers and link their assignments to monthly data on investigation outcomes, crime, and police workforce. Exploiting manager mobility across divisions in an AKM-style framework, we estimate that managers account for about one quarter of the variance in log clearances per worker. More effective managers raise clearances across offense types, increase both police-issued sanctions and court convictions, and expand proactive enforcement without increasing frontline headcount. These effects emerge quickly after a manager arrives and largely dissipate after departure. Managerial effectiveness also shapes organizational responses to policy change: stronger commanders mitigate the increase in violent crime following police station closures and achieve faster response times following body-worn camera adoption relative to less well-managed divisions.

How does judicial bias arise and persist in the legal system? We trace the lifecycle of judicial bias in India's criminal courts, leveraging the quasi-random assignment of judges to courts and cases. We first document substantial variation in bias: within the same court, assigning a same-religion defendant from a judge at the 25th to 75th percentile of bias increases acquittal probability by 7.5 percentage points, 45% of the mean acquittal rate. We then examine how different triggers across a judge's professional career affect their bias. Exposure to Hindu-Muslim communal riots during a judge's first five years of service leads them to increase same-religion acquittal rates by 17.5%. Yet, judges who work alongside colleagues from different religions during this critical period show no such effect. Next, social interactions between judges reinforce judicial bias. On-the-job exposure to biased colleagues leads judges to increase same-religion acquittal rates by 3.2 percentage points, with effects that persist for over a year. These findings suggest that judicial bias is neither innate nor inevitable, but rather shaped by experiences and relationships, and that thoughtful institutional design can prevent and mitigate discriminatory practices across various professions.

Heatwaves, intensified by climate change, hit the poorest the hardest. Many are exposed to dangerous temperatures through outdoor work or limited access to adaptive resources. In 2024, 37 cities in India surpassed 45°C (113°F), and around 40,000 heat stroke cases were reported. How can social protection systems evolve to address the growing losses caused by extreme heat? We evaluate an innovative intervention in India that offers automatic daily wage payments to low-income workers when temperatures exceed a predetermined threshold. Developed by the Self Employed Women's Association (SEWA) — a union representing over 3 million informal workers — the scheme is the world's first parametric heat insurance product targeting earnings loss. We use a randomized encouragement design, incentivizing SEWA officers to promote enrollment in 2,821 treatment villages, while 2,821 control villages receive no targeted outreach.

How does the presence of international trade in used durable goods, such as vehicles, affect the efficacy and relative welfare effects of unilateral policies to decarbonize transportation? This project combines a micro-founded structural model with novel data from multiple countries, to understand the effectiveness, potential economic costs, and environmental impacts, of restricting trade in used vehicles.